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Summary
Simple measures of disagreement in expected inflation from the Michigan survey of consumers, the FRB New York survey of consumer expectations, and the ECB consumer expectations survey. This dataset was collated from public sources, so it can be freely used by other researchers.
The dataset will be updated regularly to reflect the latest data.
- Vintage 1: The dataset was last updated in April 2025 of 2024 to cover data that ended in 2025:03 (MSC), 2024:05 (SCE), and 2025:03 (CES), ECB Euro area HICP by country (2025:03)
- Vintage 2: The dataset was last updated in May 2025 of 2024 to cover data that ended in 2025:04 (MSC), 2024:05 (SCE), and 2025:04 (CES), ECB Euro area HICP by country (2025:03)
- Vintage 3: The dataset was last updated in March 2026 of 2025 to cover data that ended in 2025:11 (MSC), 2025:11 (SCE), and 2025:11 (CES), ECB Euro area HICP by country (2025:12). The MSC residualised disagreement figures now account for political affiliation interacted with the party in power. The data includes two residualised options for the MSC: a long sample without, and a shorter sample when this variable becomes available.
Authors and Reference:
Household Disagreement About Expected Inflation (2024). In The Research Handbook of Inflation edited by Guido Ascari and Riccardo Trezzi, Edward-Elgar, chapter 15. bibtex
Full Dataset
Download in three formats:
Variables
The data is at the monthly frequency, and was built directly from the public access micro data files of answers.
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
date |
Month year |
mean_fcast |
Mean of answers |
med_fcast |
Median of answers |
st_dev |
Standard deviation of answers |
skew |
Skewness coefficient of answers |
mean_resid |
Mean of residualized answers |
med_resid |
Median of residualized answers |
st_dev_resid |
Standard deviation of residualised answers |
skew_resid |
Skewness of residualised answers |
*_"survey" |
Expectations survey (Michigan - msc, Fed SCE - sce, ECB CES - ecb) |
*_lt |
Long-term expectations (Michigan - 5y, Fed SCE - 3y, ECB CES - 3y) |
*_ma |
Moving average (9-month, centred) |
*_power |
Residualised answers including whether the supported political party is in power, only available for MSC and without gaps from February 2017. |
1-year expectations (as of March 2026)
US disagreement from the Michigan survey of consumers
Second moment in US inflation expectations (standard deviation, raw and residualized, last twelve years)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Higher moment in US inflation expectations (skewness, raw and residualized, last twelve years)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
First moment in US inflation expectations (mean and median, last ten years)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Socio-demographic-economic determinants of US inflation expectations (by subsample)
Note: Information on respondent political affiliation in MSC becomes available without gaps from February 2017. We hence include it only in the last subsample.
US disagreement in the FRB New York survey of consumer expectations
Second moment in US inflation expectations (standard deviation, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Higher moment in US inflation expectations (skewness, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
First moment in US inflation expectations (mean and median)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Socio-demographic-economic determinants of US inflation expectations (by subsample)
EA disagreement in the ECB consumer expectations survey
Second moment in EA inflation expectations (standard deviation, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Higher moment in EA inflation expectations (skewness, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
First moment in EA inflation expectations (mean and median)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Socio-demographic-economic determinants of EA inflation expectations (by subsample)
Long-term expectations (as of March 2026)
US disagreement from the Michigan survey of consumers
Second moment in US inflation expectations (standard deviation, raw and residualized, last twelve years)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Higher moment in US inflation expectations (skewness, raw and residualized, last twelve years)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
First moment in US inflation expectations (mean and median, last ten years)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
US disagreement in the FRB New York survey of consumer expectations
Second moment in US inflation expectations (standard deviation, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Higher moment in US inflation expectations (skewness, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
First moment in US inflation expectations (mean and median)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
EA disagreement in the ECB consumer expectations survey
Second moment in EA inflation expectations (standard deviation, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Higher moment in EA inflation expectations (skewness, raw and residualized)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
First moment in EA inflation expectations (mean and median)
Data for download: Excel, csv, dta
Usage
Please cite if use, and e-mail the authors with suggested corrections.